A bold statement: Myanmar's fate hangs in the balance, but it's not the people who will decide - it's China's influence that looms large.
Myanmar's military, once on the back foot, has regained momentum in its battle against opposition groups. This turnaround is largely attributed to China's shifting support, a pivotal factor in the five-year conflict that began with the 2021 coup.
"China is the key player here," says Jason Tower, a senior expert focused on Myanmar. He highlights China's use of border closures to pressure ethnic armed groups in the north, leading to ceasefires and even the return of territory to the military. China's diplomatic support and continued weapon transfers have further bolstered the military's position.
But here's where it gets controversial: China's support has not been solely beneficial to the military. While it sells weapons to the junta, China also has ties with armed groups opposing the military. China's approach has evolved, initially muted but increasingly displeased by the conflict and economic chaos that followed the coup.
China, a major investor in Myanmar with ambitious infrastructure plans, has been frustrated by the post-coup fighting and the rise of organized crime, particularly scam compounds in border areas. This led China to tacitly approve an offensive by northern ethnic armed groups against the junta in 2023, catching the military off guard and resulting in significant territorial losses.
At this point, China "corrected course," says Morgan Michaels, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. China's border closures pressured the ethnic armed groups to back down. Michaels questions whether China ever intended to empower these groups to the point of toppling the Myanmar state.
China disapproves of the coup due to the instability it brings, but fears that a collapsed junta could lead to even greater chaos. Thus, China has thrown its support behind the military and its election plans, despite condemnation from monitors and UN experts.
The upcoming election lacks true opposition, with the military's proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, dominating the race. The military has assured China that economic projects will proceed and has vowed to tackle scam compounds, but its ability to keep these promises is uncertain.
And this is the part most people miss: China's support for the military is not unconditional. If the military fails to form ceasefires with its opponents or if infrastructure projects remain stagnant, China may once again shift its allegiance, says Tower.
Anti-China sentiment has risen in Myanmar, with some perceiving China as stoking conflict to increase its leverage. Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, disputes this characterization, arguing that China doesn't need a war to exert influence over Myanmar's political players.
"China sees the situation as a dynamic process, where a balance of power will eventually lead to stability," Sun explains.
So, as Myanmar goes to the polls, it's China's influence that will shape the outcome, a complex web of interests and power dynamics that continues to unfold.
